It all comes down to the swing states

Presidential Election fever may have skipped Illinois voters this cycle, but campaign symptoms grow stronger as both candidates spread their messages like an epidemic across sought-after battleground or “swing” states.

In 2008, there were six swing states in play, while the 2004 campaign had 11 states. For 2012, the number ranges from nine to 12, depending on where you look.

The New York Times included nine battleground states in its list, consisting of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, while USA Today included the same nine with the addition of New Mexico, North Carolina and Michigan.

American Political Journalism Organization Politico decided to exclude Michigan from the list and refers to New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as “soft” swing states. Political news aggregator Real Clear Politics goes even further by including Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Montana to the list of potential swing states.

Regardless of whether you see the number of toss-ups as being nine, 12 or 20, there is no question that candidates will wage an all out war-despite the battle being over and won in Illinois. This list of states will act as the front lines in the next week as President Obama and Governor Romney vie for the precious number of 270 electoral college votes needed to win the American presidency.

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OHIO (18 electoral votes)

Some consider Ohio to be the most important swing state of the bunch, with 18 electoral votes up for grabs. And rightfully so-this state has accurately picked winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. The last candidate to win the election, but lose Ohio, was John F. Kennedy in 1960. While Obama’s intense campaigning gave him a persistent lead, major parts of the state remains conservative.

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OHIO OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 4.54%

2004 BUSH 2.11%

2000 BUSH 3.51%

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OHIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES (CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $3,774,717

Romney: $8,255,919

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OHIO AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $63,238,764 / $6,195,226

Romney for President / $37,664,782 / $3542275

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $7,547,297 / $1,646,196

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OHIO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 7.3 percent

median income=$45,090

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COLORADO (9 electoral votes)

Obama’s big victory in Colorado during the 2008 presidential election marks the second time in the past 11 election cycles that CO voters went blue. The first was to Bill Clinton in 1992. With Latino voter turnout being the key factor, current polls show Obama with a slight lead over Romney. Romney must appeal to independents and women voters, who sealed Democratic wins for Senate and governor races in 2010.

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COLORADO OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 8.95%

2004 BUSH 4.67%

2000 BUSH 8.36%

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COLORADO CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES

(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $5,384,138

Romney: $6,038,925

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OHIO AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $26,258,473 / $2,047,111

Romney for President / $15,452,383 / $1,355,152

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $1,548,810 / $180,000**last contribution 8/27/12

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COLORADO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 8 percent

median income= $54,046

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FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)

Recent polls show a very close race in this infamous battleground state. This state may face unprecedented amounts of advertising from both candidates and could be Romney’s best shot at victory. Obama may have hope if Romney fails to win the votes of Hispanic voters, particularly Puerto Ricans in Central Florida and Cuban Americans in Southern Florida.

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FLORIDA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 2.82%

2004 BUSH 5.01%

2000 BUSH 0.01%

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FLORIDA CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $11,890,620

Romney: $23,521,375

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FLORIDA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $60,262,391 / est. 5.5 mil

Romney for President / $39,058,549 / est. 4.5 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / 0/0

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OHIO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 7.3 percent

median income= $45,090

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IOWA (6 electoral votes)

While once a solid Republican state, Iowa went to the Democrats in five of the last six elections. But in this election cycle, Iowa might pose a challenge to Pres. Obama as Romney’s consistent campaigning kept Obama’s poll ratings lower than other nearby states. Obama won Iowa in 2008 by 10 points and recent polls show his current lead as less than half that.

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IOWA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 9.58%

2004 BUSH 0.67%

2000 GORE 0.32%

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IOWA CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $1,126,737

Romney: $1,418,951

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IOWA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $22,644,066 / est. 1.7 million

Romney for President / $14,746,401 / est $1.5 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $1,352,131 total

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NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 votes)

Democrats won big in New Hampshire during five of the last eight elections. But it could also be Romney’s greatest chance to win a state that went to Obama in 2008 as his conservative fiscal views appeal to independent voters.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 9.65%

2004 KERRY 1.37%

2000 BUSH 1.27%

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NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $1,268,209

Romney: $1,191,192

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NEW HAMPSHIRE AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $18,879,480 / est. 2.35 mil

Romney for President / $3,742,023 / est $908,000

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $1,723,732 total

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NEVADA (6 electoral votes)

In the last six presidential elections, Nevada went three to the Democrats and three to the Republicans. Nevada’s demographic trend could help Obama, who won the state in 2008, but the housing crisis there might be Romney’s ticket to the presidency. Nevada also has the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment and large Mormon population.

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NEVADA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 12.5%

2004 BUSH 2.59%

2000 BUSH 3.54%

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NEVADA CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $1,197,145

Romney: $2,695,257

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NEVADA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $20,646,376 / est. 1.6 mil

Romney for President / $10,828,410 / est $961,000

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC $962,290 total

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PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)

Pennsylvania voted Democratic in the last five elections, so many experts see this state as being more crucial for the Obama camp.

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PENNSYLVANIA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 10.35%

2004 KERRY 2.5%

2000 GORE 4.17%

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PENN CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $7,784,261

Romney: $ $8,296,131

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PENN AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $5,017,960 total

Everything else is 0

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VIRGINIA (13 electoral votes)

Like in Ohio, Obama’s intense campaigning in the state put him in the lead in recent polls. Before Obama won the state in 2008, Republicans carried it for nine out of the last 10 elections. While most of the state is deeply conservative, population shifts in N. Virginia due to an increase in the Latino and Asian population, changed its political demographics.

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VIRGINIA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 6.31%

2004 BUSH 8.21%

2000 BUSH 8.03%

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VA CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $8,652,118

Romney: $9,955,578

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NEVADA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $47,870,090 / est. 4.6 mil

Romney for President / $30,115,504 / est $2.6 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC $$4,962,439 total

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WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)

Wisconsin voters went with the Democratic party’s candidate in every election since 1988. However, with the addition of Wisconsin native Paul Ryan on his ticket, Romney may still have a fighting chance.

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WISCONSIN OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 13.93%

2004 KERRY 0.38%

2000 GORE 0.22%

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WISC CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $2,317,222

Romney: $2,808,377

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NEVADA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $$7,984,883 / est. 2.5 mil

Romney for President / $$6,177,421/ est $1.98 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC $886,708 total

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NEW MEXICO (5 electoral votes)

New Mexico voted Democratic in the last four of five elections and recent polls, which show Obama ahead by double digits in this state, may keep this trend going.

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NEW MEXICO OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 15.13%

2004 BUSH 0.79%

2000 GORE 0.06%

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NEW MEXICO CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $1,786,970

Romney: $1,324,772

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NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)

Republicans carried North Carolina in nine out of the last 10 presidential elections until Obama narrowly won the state in 2008. While the state’s changing demographics may help the president, the race is predicted to remain close until the very end.

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NORTH CAROLINA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 0.33%

2004 BUSH 12.44%

2000 BUSH 12.83%

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North Carolina CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $ $4,946,444

Romney: $5,372,413

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NORTH CAROLINA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $22,739,903 / est. 1.185

Romney for President / $ $16,455,979 / est $545,000 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC $2,316,239 total

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MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)

While Michigan originally appeared as being up for grabs, recent polls show Obama’s popularity surging. Obama scored big here with his rescue of the auto industry and a recent drop in unemployment. But Romney is not done proving himself in his home state.

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MICHIGAN OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 16.47%

2004 KERRY 3.42%

2000 GORE 5.13%

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MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $4,612,220

Romney: 6,791,607

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Michigan AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)