After the award season thusfar, the stage is set for who will (and should) win the biggest film honor of the year
Best Picture
What Will Win: This is a very loaded category, with many films having an equal chance at winning the award. The only awards show that has given a Best Picture Award is the Golden Globes, where “Argo” and “Les Miserabl’ÛΩs” took home awards. While it’s doubtful that “Les Miserabl’ÛΩs” could win this category at the Oscars (musicals haven’t won since 2002 with “Chicago”), “Argo” could be the critical darling that the voters go for, and with its win at the PGA awards, Affleck’s film might take home the gold. The only other competition is “Lincoln,” which has the power of the biopic, a genre with a lot of say in the Best Picture category.
What Should Win: While it would be a pleasant surprise to see Behn Zietlin’s “Beasts Of The Southern Wild” take home the gold, the most deserved film is David O. Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook.” It is a near-perfect film, incorporating humor and drama perfectly. It’s expertly directed, brilliantly acted and smartly written. It revitalized the romantic comedy genre, which for many years has been bland and repetitive. “Silver Linings Playbook” is a breath of fresh air, and a comedy is long overdue to win the award.
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Best Director
Who Will Win: At this point, Steven Spielberg seems to be the top contender. If Ang Lee hadn’t won the award in 2005, he might have had a better chance at this ceremony. But, Spielberg’s biopic of our 16th president has all the scale, grandeur and class that Academy voters eat up. While he doesn’t necessarily do anything special with “Lincoln,” Spielberg’s name alone is bound to generate some support and some votes. If he wins the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award, then he’s most certainly a lock-in for the Oscar. However, with Ben Affleck’s multiple wins at the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, it’s not necessarily a clear race. Had Spielberg won both it would be an undisputed win, but until the DGA Awards, nothing is set in stone.
Who Should Win: Everyone who isn’t Spielberg or Lee deserves this award, but it would be nice to see David O. Russell take home the gold. He handled his ensemble cast brilliantly, and took a subject of mental illness and made a film out of it, all while refusing to make it sappy or overly sympathetic. Instead, he created a layered, honest and funny romantic comedy – the most phenomenal in years. His dedication to his craft and ability to handle such heavy subject matter in a respectable manner is enough of a reason to give Russell the gold.
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Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis will win the Oscar with no question. His multiple wins from Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Globes and almost every film society in America make him the top contender and the unprecedented victor. His portrayal of Abraham Lincoln is uncanny, and the dedication he puts into his performances is unmatched. His only challenge is the fact that he’s won the Oscar twice before in the same category, and Academy voters may not be willing to give him a third Oscar so soon. However, with the lack of wins from the other nominees, Lewis has very little to worry about.
Who Should Win: If by some chance Daniel-Day Lewis loses Academy support, the most deserved is Joaquin Phoenix for his visceral performance in “The Master.” He transformed himself, and created this mentally insane persona for a film that is, in its own right, brilliant. Few actors can pull off the kind of intensity that Phoenix did for this role. His Freddie Quell is creepy, dangerous and captivating. He makes his audience loath him as well as sympathize with him, making his performance one of the most brilliant of the year.
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Best Actress
Who Will Win: Before the SAG awards, it would have been the majority opinion that Jessica Chastain would take home the Oscar for her stunning performance in “Zero Dark Thirty.” However, with Jennifer Lawrence’s win at the SAG awards, as well as the Golden Globes, the Oscar appears to be in her favor. Along with Chastain’s loss, the major controversies surrounding “Zero Dark Thirty” could severely hurt her chances of even being a contender for the Oscar. At this point, it seems Lawrence will take home the gold.
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence is the more deserving actress out of the five, though that’s not to say the other four performances aren’t very good, because they are in their own way, brilliant. But Lawrence’s portrayal of a bipolar woman trying to find her peace of mind in “Silver Linings Playbook” is superior. She brings the film much of its heart and humor, and she commands every scene she’s in. Lawrence commits to the role, giving an honest performance that balances comedy and drama brilliantly.
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Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: This is a tough category to predict, for multiple reasons. First, each of the nominees has at least one Oscar already under their belt. Second, three of the five nominees have won a major award (Philip Seymour Hoffman winning at Critics’ Choice, Christoph Waltz winning at the Golden Globes, Tommy Lee Jones winning at the SAG Awards). What hurts Robert De Niro’s chance is that he’s won two Oscars, and what hurts Alan Arkin’s chance is that he won the award recently. Out of the three remaining, Jones seems the most likely, seeing as his co-star Daniel Day-Lewis will most likely win. This gives him the advantage of potentially being caught up in the sweep of awards that “Lincoln” might get on Oscar night. However, even with that, this category is still up in the air.
Who Should Win: It would be nice to see Philip Seymour Hoffman take the Oscar for his performance in “The Master.” Out of the five nominees, his performance was the most daring, and definitely the most compelling. Like every one of his performances, Hoffman really embodies his character, making him terrifying, charming and repulsive all at once. The other four played it safe, and stayed with a character they were all too familiar with. With his visceral performance, Hoffman proved that his talent hasn’t diminished over these past years, but has in fact flourished into something greater.
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Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway will have no issues walking home with the Oscar. Her portrayal of Fantine in “Les Miserabl’ÛΩs” was nothing short of heartbreaking and brilliant. She brought a whole new level to a character that has been portrayed in hundreds of shows around the world, giving a daring, involved and moving performance. What hurts the other four nominees is the lack of attention they have received from other awards shows. What helps Hathaway is not only her multiple wins at other award ceremonies, but also the track record musicals have had in the supporting actress category (Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls” and Catherine Zeta-Jones in “Chicago” to name a few). At this point in the season, she has very little to fear as far as competition.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway definitely deserves to win in this category, for the reasons stated above. Her performance is brilliant, and her mastery of her craft is impeccable. She is one of the most musically talented actresses of her generation, and for a performance such as this one, and Oscar is most deserved indeed.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Both screenplay categories are entirely open ended, with most of the nominees sharing an equal chance of winning. In the adapted category, the most likely candidates are Chris Terrio (“Argo”), Tony Kushner (“Lincoln”), and David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”). A win for both Terrio and Kushner will depend on if either of their films wins Best Picture. Russell appears to be the only candidate to win in this category without his film winning Best Picture. If there were any category for his film to win, it would be in Best Adapted Screenplay. Right now, his screenplay has the right themes, dialogue, and praise to snag a win.
Who Should Win: In this category, David O. Russell’s screenplay for “Silver Linings Playbook” is the most deserved. He balances humor and drama so well, and really dives deep into the issue of mental illness. But he doesn’t make it sappy; he doesn’t make it overly dramatic, or offensively funny. He somehow found an equal balance, and made an honestly warm-hearted, romantic comedy. For him to be able to accomplish that is deserved of an Oscar to say the least.
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Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Like the adapted screenplay, this category could go to almost anyone. The only nominee to win any of the major awards is Quentin Tarantino for “Django Unchained” (Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice). This alone could be enough to give him the Oscar. However, the controversies surrounding the suggestive dialogue and representation of slavery in his screenplay could hurt his chances of winning. Wes Anderson is way overdue for an Oscar after giving over a decade of intelligent, witty films, and his well received “Moonrise Kingdom” could finally give him the support of the Academy. The spoiler here could be Michael Haneke’s screenplay for “Amour,” as the subject matter is very real and relatable to many of the Academy voters who are starting to entire their prime. “Flight” doesn’t have nearly enough critical support to go anywhere, and Mark Boal won three years ago for “The Hurt Locker,” which hurts his chances of winning another Oscar for “Zero Dark Thirty.” The other three nominees at this point have an equal chance at snagging the gold.
Who Should Win: Wes Anderson is overdue for an Oscar, and “Moonrise Kingdom” is the perfect film to honor him for years of impressive work in the film industry. His screenplay captured young love in its most honest and raw form, and is quite possibly his most mature script to date. His characters are compelling, his dialogue is witty and his message reminds viewers what it feels like to fall in love in the first place.