In 2018, the U.S. began allowing citizens to legally bet their hard-earned money on sports games on a state-by-state basis.

Now in 2026, we have the ability to “invest” in prediction markets, which means you can bet on just about anything, even if it’s not legally considered gambling.

These so-called investments include “Democratic presidential nominee 2028,” “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” or even “Hantavirus pandemic 2026?”

Unlike traditional sports betting platforms such as FanDuel or DraftKings, which have stricter regulations on advertising, these prediction platforms aren’t legally considered gambling. That gives them much more flexibility to market themselves however they want, which is concerning, since they are reaching so many people. 

That’s quite a change of pace from betting on whether your favorite NBA star makes a certain number of 3-pointers — all thanks to the fast rise in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Will Richardson, a sophomore double majoring in film and marketing, said he first learned about prediction markets through TikTok and Instagram posts showing users placing bets on political and cultural events.

“You see much of it become ‘meme-ified’ with people betting on things as jokes or trying to win bets to pay for food as they’re buying it,” Richardson said.

In the last few years, we’ve seen prediction markets grow from a fringe offshoot of sports gambling to being billion-dollar companies, and cutting deals with CNN and Google. Sports leagues such as the UFC and NHL are making partnership deals with these platforms, also with few regulations.

Matt Ragas, a professor of public relations at DePaul, has followed the growth of these markets in recent years.

“There’s really this back door right now with prediction markets,” Ragas said. “States are not happy, they’re not generating any revenue because it’s not being taxed like the sports gambling.”

Another concern is the potential for insider trading by politicians, as prediction markets have previously faced scrutiny over participants profiting from privileged political knowledge.

Recently, the U.S. Justice Department announced the arrest of a U.S. soldier who won over $400,000 on Polymarket after using classified documents to make wagers leading up to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Last month, the U.S. Senate also banned its members from using these prediction markets.

“The amount of information that can be in possession of people in advance, that they can do bad deeds around, is at a level that’s just hard to fathom,” Ragas said. 

Given that a growing segment of global prediction markets is crypto-based, tracking finances can also be more difficult.

Now, Donald Trump Jr. is on the advisory board of Polymarket. Both Polymarket and Kalshi also have a large investment from Founders Fund, the venture capital firm of tech bro Peter Thiel, a man with strong ties to the Trump administration.

So who’s going to stop insider trading? Not the people who are getting richer.

You have a marketplace that is plagued with political influence, unregulated finances, and a complete disdain for human life.

Will Russia capture a specific Ukrainian town by a certain date? Will a ceasefire with Iran be signed by a certain date?

All bets that can be made on these websites.

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