American businesses and consumers fear how tariffs will impact their ability to make and spend money. Aluminum, electronics and cars have been a big focus since President Trump announced a barrage of tariffs on “Liberation Day” last month.

In states like Illinois, where agriculture is a big deal, the administration’s trade war also could have a big impact on farmers. 

No one knows that better than people like John Bartman, who grows field corn, winter wheat, rye, sorghum and soybeans in McHenry County, northwest of Chicago. He exports soybeans to China, and potentially losing that market would be a devastating financial loss. 

“It’s a dramatic loss — 100% of it is exported,” Bartman said.“So that means that the grain that I grow here would have to compete with other domestic and international markets that are available.” 

According to the Illinois Department of Agriculture, marketing for Illinois farm products rakes in $51.1 billion a year, with 40% of that billion coming from the crops themselves. Further profits come from the various industries that rely on agriculture to exist, such as insurance, farmland real estate and equipment manufacturing. Illinois ships $10.5 billion worth of goods overseas, ranking it fifth in agricultural trade from the U.S.

But with tariffs targeting countries like China, Mexico and Canada, farmers in Illinois will be some of the first people hit by consequences.

“This is the writings of the 1980 farm crisis, which was basically caused by bad (agriculture) and bad foreign policy,” Bartman said.

The 1980s crisis Bartman refers to was triggered by decreasing land values and high interest rates, so the circumstances now are different. However, Bartman remembers how the selling price of products like corn took a dive and how millions of farmers were forced to close their doors.

Jonathan Coppess, an associate professor of agricultural policy at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said a similar economic crisis could happen if the United States enters into a trade war.

“Farmers will also be impacted by lost market share or, in the case of China, maybe the entire market,” Coppess said. “Initially, this will cause lower crop prices and incomes.” 

Coppess said that when coupled with higher costs this is problematic.

Bartman said the loss of demand for his soybeans in the Chinese market would be devastating.

“The beans right now are around $10 a bushel,” Bartman said. “Two years ago, it was about $14 a bushel. If we lose this market next year, it’s going to be even worse. You know, you’re looking at possibly $8 to $9.”

For Brian Duncan, a family farmer and president of the Illinois Farm Bureau, a similar loss could hit his pork products. As he sees it, American farmers can’t ignore the fact that 95% of the world’s population — a huge customer base for “food, fuel and fiber” — lives outside the United States. 

“So, let’s not return to isolationism,” Duncan said. “Let’s try to figure out how to improve on the current rules-based system and bring some certainty back into the trade arena.”

 Economic predictability is an important aspect of farming. Duncan, the Farm Bureau president, used wheat as an example. He said most of the wheat grown in Illinois was planted in September and October before Donald Trump took office, giving farmers no time to make changes based on his policies.

Duncan said replanting an entire field of soybeans that is no longer going overseas is also impossible.

Farmers can’t just turn their export products into domestic products either. According to Johari Cole, an organic farmer and Farm Service Agency state committee member, domestic customers generally already have established vendors and would be unlikely to take on excess from others.

 “It’s like, proven channels are already set in place for buying a large amount of the commodity product,” Cole said. “Now, some of them will likely get absorbed by different manufacturers, like cereal companies. But a lot of times, those markets are already saturated. So we have to see if (farmers) can easily turn (product) into other manufacturing companies that will absorb and pick up those markets.”

Cole thinks the Trump Administration’s plan could have some merit. However, she thinks the president’s strategy is targeting the wrong people.

“The unfortunate thing is, he’s blamed other countries for abusing America, like they’re getting something for nothing, which is not true,” Cole said.  

In her eyes, America needs more domestic investment. She thinks farmers should focus on feeding the American people first — but that shift, she added, shouldn’t harm farmers in the process. 

Chinese tariffs on U.S. products now sit at 10%, while the U.S. tariffs sit at 30%; however, the situation is ongoing.  

“We’ve tightened the belts, deferred some capital purchases and are doing anything we can to reduce our expenses and hope for a rapid resolution,” Duncan said. “Farmers would much rather get their income from the marketplace than from the mailbox.”

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